Leonardo Dicaprio's One Battle After Another has been the film to beat at the 2026 Oscars for months. But when nominations day dawned, the race was split wide open when Ryan Coogler's vampire genre film Sinners broke Academy history with an incredible 16 nominations, outperforming predictions, and revealing that Ryan and Sinners had serious goodwill behind them.
I've been covering awards season for 12 years now, and the snubs never fail to surprise. I was shocked to see Wicked: For Good snubbed entirely, even across below-the-line categories, while Paul Mescal missed out on a nod for Hamnet, leaving Jessie Buckley the only real hopeful for Chloe Zhao's adaptation.
Surprises, for, me were nominations for Emma Stone in Best Actress for Bugonia and that film's inclusion in Best Picture, Kate Hudson's nod for Song Sung Blue, and Ethan Hawke in Best Actor, all of which shook up the race.
But who will win? Following the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and Actor Awards, my final predictions are below...
Best Picture
Nominations: Bugonia F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle after Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
As of writing, I remain torn as to whether predict One Battle After Another, or Sinners.
Hamnet only has one nod in the acting categories, for Jessie Buckley, making its chances a long-shot despite its Golden Globes win, and Frankenstein missed a nod for its director Guilleromo del Toro which has historically been tough to overcome; only three films have managed this achievement in the last 30 years, CODA (2021), Green Book (2018), and Argo (2012).
One Battle After Another, a dark comedy about ex-revolutionaries, earned 13 nominations, including nods for Best Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, and two for Supporting Actor, proving it has won over Academy voters.
It also won Best Picture at the 2026 BAFTAs, and PTA picked up Best Director.
However, the largest peer group in the Academy are actors, and Sinners resoundingly swept the 2026 Actor Awards, picking up Best Ensemble, and Best Actor for Michael B. Jordan.
Predicted winner: Sinners
Best Director
Nominations: Chloé Zhao, Josh Safdie, Paul Thomas Anderson, Joachim Trier, Ryan Coogler
Will 2026 be a year that the Academy splits est Picture and Best Director?
Although I'd love to see this go to Ryan Coogler, I do think it may be Paul Thomas Anderson's year
PTA has been nominated 14 times across all categories, and this is his fourth for Best Director (he was also nominated for There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza).
He is deeply respected across all the guilds, and his work behind the camera for One Battle After Another is some of his best. He has also scooped the award at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAS.
Predicted winner: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor in a Leading Role
© Warner BrosNominations: Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Michael B Jordan, Wagner Moura
Leonardo DiCaprio was an early frontrunner, yet momentum had been leaning towards Timothee winning his first Best Actor Oscar after three nominations – he is now the youngest actor to receive three nods in this category.
But after the last several weeks, I now think this may be Michael B. Jordan's year.
In what came as a huge shock, Timothee lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo, before a week later also losing the Actor Award to Michael, with thunderous applause for Michael from his peers in the room.
Predicted winner: Michael B. Jordan
Best Actress in a Leading Role
© Agata GrzybowskaNominations: Jessie Buckley, Rose Byrne, Kate Hudson, Renate Reinsve, Emma Stone
Jessie is an undeniable tour de force in Hamnet as Agnes, the wife of Will Shakespeare in Chloe Zhao's stunning meditation on art and grief.
This feels like Jessie's to lose, especially because Jessie has won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the Actor Award.
Predicted winner: Jessie Buckley
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominations: Benicio Del Toro, Jacob Elordi, Delroy Lindo, Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård
This is the one category where things still feel up in the air.
Stellan's Globes win shook up the race in January, and then Jacob won the Critics Choice Award.
Sean has been helped by his BAFTA win, and he also scooped the Actor Award.
Still, don't rule out Delroy.
Predicted winner:Sean Penn
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominations: Elle Fanning, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Amy Madigan, Wunmi Mosaku, Teyana Taylor
This award felt like Teyana's to lose, but like Best Supporting Actor, things have gotten far more complicated as the season continued.
Teyana had been playing the game beautifully this awards season, making the rounds to the various parties and teas, and giving one of the best speeches of the night at the Globes - which always helps when Oscars voters are thinking about who will say what at their ceremony.
But Amy Madigan's win at the Critics Choice Awards rocked the boat, and Wunmi Mosaka was honored with the BAFTA for her work on Sinners, before, in what was considered a big upset, Amy then scooped the Actor Award.
Predicted winner: Amy Madigan
